The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Fragility"
Random House Publishing Group, 11/mag/2010 - 444 pagine
The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes.
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.
Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”
For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.
Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan.
Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“The most prophetic voice of all.”—GQ
Praise for The Black Swan
“[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London)
“A masterpiece.”—Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail
“Idiosyncratically brilliant.”—Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times
“The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.”—Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate
“[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.”—The Wall Street Journal
“Hugely enjoyable—compelling . . . easy to dip into.”—Financial Times
“Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.”—The New York Times Book Review
From the Hardcover edition.
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UMBERTO ECOS ANTILIBRARY OR HOW WE SEEK VALIDATION
Yevgenias Black Swan
One Thousand and One Days or How Not to Be a Sucker
The Narrative Fallacy
Living in the Antechamber of Hope
Giacomo Casanovas Unfailing Luck
The Ludic Fallacy or The Uncertainly of the Nerd
Lockes Madmen or Bell Curves in the Wrong Places
The Uncertainty of the Phony
Half and Half or How to Get Even with the Black Swan 295
II Why I Do All This Walking or How Systems Become Fragile
III Margaritas Ante Porcos
IV Asperger and the Ontological Black Swan
V Perhaps the Most Useful Problem in the History
WE JUST CANT PREDICT
How to Look for Bird Poop
Epistemocracy a Dream
Appelles the Painter or What Do You Do if
THOSE GRAY SWANS OF EXTREMISTAN 213
The Bell Curve That Great Intellectual Fraud
The Aesthetics of Randomness
Amioun argument asked assume average avoid believe bell curve bias Black Swan brain called Casanova casino cause Chapter confirmation bias consider deviations discuss economic economists effect empirical empiricism epistemic error experience Extremistan fact Fat Tony focus forecast fractal future Gaussian happen human ice cube idea intellectual knowledge Lebanon less live logic look luck ludic fallacy Mandelbrot mathematicians mathematics matters Mediocristan million mind models Myron Scholes narrative fallacy nature Nero never Nobel notion odds past percent person philosopher Platonic Poincare possible power laws precise predict probability problem problem of induction randomness rare events risk scalable scientists silent evidence skepticism social someone statistical story Taleb theory things thinkers tion uncertainty understand variables writing wrong Yevgenia Yogi Berra