Climate change risks to marine ecosystems and fisheries: Projections to 2100 from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison ProjectFood & Agriculture Org. [Author] [Author], 2 lug 2024 - 108 pagine Climate change impacts on marine fisheries resources are changing the distribution and productivity of marine organisms around the globe. Knowledge and model projections to estimate fish biomass gains and losses are crucial for informing climate-resilient fisheries management and adaptation planning. This report was developed in collaboration with the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP); it presents projections to 2100 of exploitable fish biomass under different climate scenarios, for all countries and territories. The results are based on state-of-the art modelling approaches produced by a global network of marine ecosystem modelers. Investigating the medium- and long-term effects of climate change on global marine ecosystems and fisheries, modellers collaborated to compare existing models worldwide and to produce an ensemble of projections, along with their associated uncertainties, under low and high-emission future scenarios. The report's elements are expected to support countries' efforts in updating their Nationally Determined Contributions to achieve the Paris Agreement goals. |
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agr mean sd assessment biodiversity Blanchard Boundaries and Exclusive Bryndum-Buchholz century changes in exploitable Chapters and sections climate change climate change impacts CMIP6 coastal countries and territories direction of change Earth system models ecological Economic Zones 200NM Ecopath ecosystem services ecosystems and fisheries ecosystems under climate end-of-century ESS Open Archive Exclusive Economic Zones exploitable fish biomass FAO Major Fishing Fierro-Arcos Figure Fisheries and Aquaculture fisheries catches fisheries management FishMIP FishMIP models Flanders Marine Institute Geodatabase global marine ecosystem global models Heneghan high emissions scenario https://doi inputs inter-model variability IPCC low emissions scenario Major Fishing Areas marine animal biomass marine ecosystem models Maritime Boundaries Geodatabase mean sd agr mid-century model agreement Model ensemble projections Model Intercomparison Project model projections ocean outputs Pacific percent percentage change phytoplankton Pierre-Simon Laplace potential primary production Projections capture ecosystems reference period regional marine ecosystem sd agr mean simulations socioeconomic temperature Tittensor uncertainty University of Tasmania