ACKNOWLEDGMENT

This report was prepared by Edward D. Abrahams, an industry specialist in the Capital Goods and International Construction Sector Group, International Trade Administration.

Please address comments on this assessment to the attention of:

Deputy Assistant Secretary

Capital Goods and International Construction

HCHB--Room H-2001B

U.S. Department of Commerce

14th Street and Constitution Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20230

Government agencies providing resource data and information include the International Trade Administration, Bureau of the Census, and Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor; the U.S. Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture; the Office of Industrial Programs, U.S. Department of Energy; and the International Trade Commission. In the course of this assessment, we also sought advice and comments from the private sector. The assistance and information provided by individuals both in government and the private sector are gratefully acknowledged. However, responsibility for the analysis and findings in this report remains with the U.S. Department of Commerce, Capital Goods and International Construction Sector Group.

III.

(TABLE OF CONTENTS CONTINUED)

Import Trends with Major Trading Partners..

Paper Products and National Security Concerns.

61

62

62

63

64

64

65

74

76

79

82

86

87

89

Other Countries.

91

Mexico and Latin America.

Switzerland...

Australia/New Zealand..

91

93

93

95

98

98

102

VI. OUTLOOK FOR THE U.S. PAPER MACHINERY INDUSTRY...

105

Outlook For 1989 and Beyond.

Producer Capabilities.

105

105

LIST OF TABLES

PAGE

Table

1

Table 2

Table 3
Table 4
Table 5

Table 6

Table 7

Table 8
Table 9
Table
10
Table 11
Table 12
Table 13

Table 14

Table 15
Table 16

Table 17

Table 18

Table 19

Table 20

Major U.S. Paper Machinery Plants
Outside United States & Canada...
Foreign Paper Machinery Producers
in the United States..

11

20

22

24

26

U.S. Shipments of Paper Machinery: 1958-86
Employment in Paper Machinery Industry.
Paper Machinery Industry Output per
Production Worker Man-Hour: 1972-86.....
Measures of Productivity Improvement
Compared to all U.S.

Manufacturing: 1978-85....

Net Sales and Income of Selected Paper
Machinery Manufacturers: 1980-86.
New Capital Expenditures: 1967-86....
U.S. Trade in Paper Machinery: 1982-87.
Materials Consumed: 1982...

Cost of Materials: Historical Trends.
Prices of U.S. and Imported Steel: 1978-87
Prices For Carbon Steel, Composite, and
Plate, United States, Japan, and West
Germany: 1980, 1983, 1986...
Hourly Compensation Costs For Production
Workers In Manufacturing, Selected
Countries: 1980, 1985-1987...

Long Term Government Bond Yields: 1980-86.
Central Bank Discount Rates: 1982-87..
Paper Machinery Price Indexes: 1984-87.
Operating Capacity for Paper Machinery:
1981-86..

World Market, Market Share of Five

Leading Exporting Nations: 1981-85..
World Trade in Paper Machinery: 1981-85.

Table 21 Paper Machinery: