Avoiding the Apocalypse: The Future of the Two Koreas

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Columbia University Press, 1 giu 2000 - 456 pagine
On the Korean peninsula one of the greatest success stories of the postwar era confronts a famine-ridden—and possibly nuclear-armed—totalitarian state. The stakes are extraordinarily high for both North and South Korea and for countries such as the United States that have a direct stake in these affairs. This study, the most comprehensive volume to date on the subject, examines the current situation in the two Koreas in terms of three major crises: the nuclear confrontation between the United States and North Korea, the North Korean famine, and the South Korean financial crisis. The future of the peninsula is then explored under three alternative scenarios: successful reform in North Korea, collapse and absorption (as happened in Germany), and "muddling through" in which North Korea, supported by foreign powers, makes ad hoc, regime-preserving reforms that fall short of fundamental transformation.

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Sommario

Preface
xi
Acknowledgments
xv
Introduction
xvii
The South Korean Economy until 1997
xxxi
The North Korean Economy
lxxv
The Nuclear Confrontation
3-74
The SlowMotion Famine in the North
3-102
The Financial Crisis in the South
3-126
The Prospect for Successful Reform in the North
3-182
The Implications of North Korean Collapse
285
Can the North Muddle Through?
323
Conclusions
347
References
377
Appendix
401
Index
405
Copyright

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Informazioni sull'autore (2000)

Marcus Noland, executive vice president and director of studies, has been associated with the Institute since 1985. From 2009 through 2012, he served as the Institute's deputy director. His research addresses a wide range of topics at the interstice of economics, political science, and international relations. His areas of geographical knowledge and interest include Asia and Africa where he has lived and worked, and the Middle East. In the past he has written extensively on the economies of Japan, Korea, and China, and is unique among American economists in having devoted serious scholarly effort to the problems of North Korea and the prospects for Korean unification.

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