Avoiding the Apocalypse: The Future of the Two KoreasColumbia University Press, 1 giu 2000 - 456 pagine On the Korean peninsula one of the greatest success stories of the postwar era confronts a famine-ridden—and possibly nuclear-armed—totalitarian state. The stakes are extraordinarily high for both North and South Korea and for countries such as the United States that have a direct stake in these affairs. This study, the most comprehensive volume to date on the subject, examines the current situation in the two Koreas in terms of three major crises: the nuclear confrontation between the United States and North Korea, the North Korean famine, and the South Korean financial crisis. The future of the peninsula is then explored under three alternative scenarios: successful reform in North Korea, collapse and absorption (as happened in Germany), and "muddling through" in which North Korea, supported by foreign powers, makes ad hoc, regime-preserving reforms that fall short of fundamental transformation. |
Dall'interno del libro
Risultati 1-5 di 44
Pagina viii
... exchange Estimated costs of unification Romanian macroeconomic indicators Financial development Real interest rates ... rate and stock market changes South Korea's real GDP growth forecast and expected real exchange rate change Model ...
... exchange Estimated costs of unification Romanian macroeconomic indicators Financial development Real interest rates ... rate and stock market changes South Korea's real GDP growth forecast and expected real exchange rate change Model ...
Pagina xxxi
... exchange rate, and low interest rates (Cho 1994). The results were misallocation of capital and recurrent balance of payments crises. The trade regime was characterized by considerable barriers, including an import licensing system and ...
... exchange rate, and low interest rates (Cho 1994). The results were misallocation of capital and recurrent balance of payments crises. The trade regime was characterized by considerable barriers, including an import licensing system and ...
Pagina xxxiii
... exchange rate and the devaluation of the currency in 1964. At the same time, the government began to introduce a wide range of export promotion measures. A government-subsidized organization, the Korea Trade Promotion Corporation (KOTRA) ...
... exchange rate and the devaluation of the currency in 1964. At the same time, the government began to introduce a wide range of export promotion measures. A government-subsidized organization, the Korea Trade Promotion Corporation (KOTRA) ...
Pagina xxxvi
... rate Marginal productivity of capital Yield rate of corporate bond Bank loan ... trade protection. As might be expected, allocative efficiency declined, and ... exchange. The notion was that these firms could capture scale economies in ...
... rate Marginal productivity of capital Yield rate of corporate bond Bank loan ... trade protection. As might be expected, allocative efficiency declined, and ... exchange. The notion was that these firms could capture scale economies in ...
Pagina xliv
... trade (Rhee 1994). The exchange rate was kept competitive, if not artificially undervalued. South Korea also benefited from the rapid growth of world. 18. Kim and Hwang (1998), who looked at more recent experiences in the semiconductor ...
... trade (Rhee 1994). The exchange rate was kept competitive, if not artificially undervalued. South Korea also benefited from the rapid growth of world. 18. Kim and Hwang (1998), who looked at more recent experiences in the semiconductor ...
Sommario
xi | |
xv | |
xvii | |
xxxi | |
The North Korean Economy | lxxv |
The Nuclear Confrontation | 3-74 |
The SlowMotion Famine in the North | 3-102 |
The Financial Crisis in the South | 3-126 |
The Prospect for Successful Reform in the North | 3-182 |
The Implications of North Korean Collapse | 285 |
Can the North Muddle Through? | 323 |
Conclusions | 347 |
References | 377 |
Appendix | 401 |
Index
| 405 |
Altre edizioni - Visualizza tutto
Avoiding the Apocalypse: The Future of the Two Koreas [ISBN not on www] Noland, Marcus Anteprima limitata - 2000 |
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activities agencies Agreed Framework agreement agricultural announced argues assets AVOIDING THE APOCALYPSE capita income centrally planned chaebol chapter China Chinese collapse countries Daewoo debt demand diplomatic domestic DPRK East German Eberstadt economic enterprises estimates exchange rate exports external famine figure financial crisis financial sector firms foreign Fund government’s Hanbo humanitarian Hyundai IAEA imports increase industrial interest rates investment investors issue Japan Japanese KEDO KFTC Kim Dae-jung Kim Il-sung Kim Jong-il Kim Young-sam Korean peninsula labor liberalization loans ment military million missile National negotiations Noland North Korean economy North Korean won nuclear OECD official output percent political problems production Pyongyang Rajin-Sonbong reactors reform regime relations relatively reported reportedly restructuring Romania scenario Seoul share significant South Korean banks South Korean government technological convergence tion tons trade unification United