Avoiding the Apocalypse: The Future of the Two KoreasColumbia University Press, 1 giu 2000 - 456 pagine On the Korean peninsula one of the greatest success stories of the postwar era confronts a famine-ridden—and possibly nuclear-armed—totalitarian state. The stakes are extraordinarily high for both North and South Korea and for countries such as the United States that have a direct stake in these affairs. This study, the most comprehensive volume to date on the subject, examines the current situation in the two Koreas in terms of three major crises: the nuclear confrontation between the United States and North Korea, the North Korean famine, and the South Korean financial crisis. The future of the peninsula is then explored under three alternative scenarios: successful reform in North Korea, collapse and absorption (as happened in Germany), and "muddling through" in which North Korea, supported by foreign powers, makes ad hoc, regime-preserving reforms that fall short of fundamental transformation. |
Dall'interno del libro
Risultati 1-5 di 56
Pagina xx
... loans and was effectively cut off from international capital markets, narrowing the regime's economic options and leaving it dependent on the Eastern Bloc for support. The situation worsened in the mid-1980s as relations deteriorated ...
... loans and was effectively cut off from international capital markets, narrowing the regime's economic options and leaving it dependent on the Eastern Bloc for support. The situation worsened in the mid-1980s as relations deteriorated ...
Pagina xxxiv
... local sale, to their competitive advantage in the domestic market. 18 AVOIDING THE APOCALYPSE 10. The definition of ''policy loans'' is imprecise, and various. Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com.
... local sale, to their competitive advantage in the domestic market. 18 AVOIDING THE APOCALYPSE 10. The definition of ''policy loans'' is imprecise, and various. Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com.
Pagina xxxv
... loans to strategic projects on a preferential basis. By the late 1970s, the share of these ''policy loans'' had risen to 60 percent (Yoo 1994).10 These loans carried, on average, negative real interest rates, and the annual interest ...
... loans to strategic projects on a preferential basis. By the late 1970s, the share of these ''policy loans'' had risen to 60 percent (Yoo 1994).10 These loans carried, on average, negative real interest rates, and the annual interest ...
Pagina xxxvi
... loan rate -20 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 -10 0 10 20 Source: Cho and Koh (1996). (figure 2.2). Capital channeling policies were augmented by extensive tax incentives for the priority industries. It is estimated that the ...
... loan rate -20 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 -10 0 10 20 Source: Cho and Koh (1996). (figure 2.2). Capital channeling policies were augmented by extensive tax incentives for the priority industries. It is estimated that the ...
Pagina xxxix
... loans'' in domestic credit was reduced from approximately 45 percent in the period 1974-82 to 35 percent in 1983-88. Commercial banks were required to extend at least 35 percent of their loans to small and mediumsized firms to ...
... loans'' in domestic credit was reduced from approximately 45 percent in the period 1974-82 to 35 percent in 1983-88. Commercial banks were required to extend at least 35 percent of their loans to small and mediumsized firms to ...
Sommario
xi | |
xv | |
xvii | |
xxxi | |
The North Korean Economy | lxxv |
The Nuclear Confrontation | 3-74 |
The SlowMotion Famine in the North | 3-102 |
The Financial Crisis in the South | 3-126 |
The Prospect for Successful Reform in the North | 3-182 |
The Implications of North Korean Collapse | 285 |
Can the North Muddle Through? | 323 |
Conclusions | 347 |
References | 377 |
Appendix | 401 |
Index
| 405 |
Altre edizioni - Visualizza tutto
Avoiding the Apocalypse: The Future of the Two Koreas [ISBN not on www] Noland, Marcus Anteprima limitata - 2000 |
Parole e frasi comuni
activities agencies Agreed Framework agreement agricultural announced argues assets AVOIDING THE APOCALYPSE capita income centrally planned chaebol chapter China Chinese collapse countries Daewoo debt demand diplomatic domestic DPRK East German Eberstadt economic enterprises estimates exchange rate exports external famine figure financial crisis financial sector firms foreign Fund government’s Hanbo humanitarian Hyundai IAEA imports increase industrial interest rates investment investors issue Japan Japanese KEDO KFTC Kim Dae-jung Kim Il-sung Kim Jong-il Kim Young-sam Korean peninsula labor liberalization loans ment military million missile National negotiations Noland North Korean economy North Korean won nuclear OECD official output percent political problems production Pyongyang Rajin-Sonbong reactors reform regime relations relatively reported reportedly restructuring Romania scenario Seoul share significant South Korean banks South Korean government technological convergence tion tons trade unification United