Avoiding the Apocalypse: The Future of the Two Koreas
Institute for International Economics, 2000 - 431 pagine
On the Korean peninsula one of the greatest success stories of the postwar era confronts a famine-ridden-and possibly nuclear-armed-totalitarian state. The stakes are extraordinarily high for both North and South Korea and for countries such as the United States that have a direct stake in these affairs. This study, the most comprehensive volume to date on the subject, examines the current situation in the two Koreas in terms of three major crises: the nuclear confrontation between the United States and North Korea, the North Korean famine, and the South Korean financial crisis. The future of the peninsula is then explored under three alternative scenarios: successful reform in North Korea, collapse and absorption (as happened in Germany), and "muddling through" in which North Korea, supported by foreign powers, makes ad hoc, regime-preserving reforms that fall short of fundamental transformation.
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imposing strict export performance requirements ( SaKong 1993 ) . Not
surprisingly , most foreign ... Similarly , the evidence on the importance of
technological licensing in spurring exports is mixed ( Westphal et al . 1981 ) .
Exports have never been considered for economic gains in employment or
income , but as a means to finance necessary imports ( p.21 ) . The 1970s push
for military modernization left the country heavily indebted relative to its meager
Figure 3.2 North Korean trade exports and imports ( billions of US dollars ) 3.5 3
2.5 . 2 Exports 1.5 Imports 1 0.5 0 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Source : Bank of Korea , KOTRA . statistics ...
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The South Korean Economy until 1997
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