Avoiding the Apocalypse: The Future of the Two Koreas
Institute for International Economics, 2000 - 431 pagine
On the Korean peninsula one of the greatest success stories of the postwar era confronts a famine-ridden-and possibly nuclear-armed-totalitarian state. The stakes are extraordinarily high for both North and South Korea and for countries such as the United States that have a direct stake in these affairs. This study, the most comprehensive volume to date on the subject, examines the current situation in the two Koreas in terms of three major crises: the nuclear confrontation between the United States and North Korea, the North Korean famine, and the South Korean financial crisis. The future of the peninsula is then explored under three alternative scenarios: successful reform in North Korea, collapse and absorption (as happened in Germany), and "muddling through" in which North Korea, supported by foreign powers, makes ad hoc, regime-preserving reforms that fall short of fundamental transformation.
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South Korea also benefited from the rapid growth of world markets during the
postwar period . The resultant changes in the composition of trade were
astounding . In 1963 , non - fuel primary products accounted for fully half of South
The deregulation of banks and non - bank financial institutions , together with the
growth in stock and bond markets , led to a withering of the curb market , which
declined to less than 10 percent of domestic credit . In 1993 , the government ...
Figure 6.5 South Korean real GDP growth forecast and expected real exchange
rate change real exchange rate growth real GDP growth ( percent ) ( percent ) 7
20 Real GDP growth forecast 6 10 Expected real exchange rate change 5 0 4 ...
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The South Korean Economy until 1997
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