Avoiding the Apocalypse: The Future of the Two Koreas
Institute for International Economics, 2000 - 431 pagine
On the Korean peninsula one of the greatest success stories of the postwar era confronts a famine-ridden-and possibly nuclear-armed-totalitarian state. The stakes are extraordinarily high for both North and South Korea and for countries such as the United States that have a direct stake in these affairs. This study, the most comprehensive volume to date on the subject, examines the current situation in the two Koreas in terms of three major crises: the nuclear confrontation between the United States and North Korea, the North Korean famine, and the South Korean financial crisis. The future of the peninsula is then explored under three alternative scenarios: successful reform in North Korea, collapse and absorption (as happened in Germany), and "muddling through" in which North Korea, supported by foreign powers, makes ad hoc, regime-preserving reforms that fall short of fundamental transformation.
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As an indicator of this , more than half the reorganization cases completed
between 1993 and 1995 had been filed more than five years earlier , and less
than a quarter of the firms had successfully emerged from reorganization .
As demonstrated above , it is no mean feat to estimate the level of North Korean
output , much less its time path . The most widely cited figures come from the BOK
, which puts out the official South Korean estimates of North Korea's economy .
This potentially means less migratory responsiveness and less of a shift away
from home goods . ?? South Korean policy could affect both of these
developments . It is interesting to ponder Sinn and Sinn's observation about East
Germany : “ It ...
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The South Korean Economy until 1997
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