Avoiding the Apocalypse: The Future of the Two Koreas
Institute for International Economics, 2000 - 431 pagine
On the Korean peninsula one of the greatest success stories of the postwar era confronts a famine-ridden-and possibly nuclear-armed-totalitarian state. The stakes are extraordinarily high for both North and South Korea and for countries such as the United States that have a direct stake in these affairs. This study, the most comprehensive volume to date on the subject, examines the current situation in the two Koreas in terms of three major crises: the nuclear confrontation between the United States and North Korea, the North Korean famine, and the South Korean financial crisis. The future of the peninsula is then explored under three alternative scenarios: successful reform in North Korea, collapse and absorption (as happened in Germany), and "muddling through" in which North Korea, supported by foreign powers, makes ad hoc, regime-preserving reforms that fall short of fundamental transformation.
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This all occurred in the context of a South Korean financial system increasingly
dependent on relatively liquid foreign capital inflows . The problem was that this
capital was flowing into a fragile , bankcentered financial system that was ...
... the South Korean PDV income stream is higher than the one associated with
the baseline scenario of no unification.39 This scenario , in which unification
yields positive net benefits to South Korea , is characterized by relatively low
levels of ...
An unknown share of the capital stock was rendered worthless by the shift in
relative prices and the collapse of demand for Romanian products . ( The relative
success story was the furniture sector . It suffered a relatively small decline in
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The South Korean Economy until 1997
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